Short answer first because life is short and paperwork is long!

• If you want it sooner: buy now, file now and accept the $200 tax.
• If you want the $200 back in your pocket and can wait, buy in January or buy now and have your dealer hold and submit the Form 4 after January 1st. (provided the dealer will actually hold the suppressor for you). There will almost certainly be a massive surge of Form 4 submissions starting January 1st. What is currently a 4–10 day approval time could balloon into 4–6 weeks, possibly longer, while ATF handles the flood.

Either way you still need the ATF paperwork, fingerprints, and approval. Below I run through the three options, the pros and cons of each, and the practical questions to ask your FFL.

Option 1 — Buy now and submit now

What happens:

You pay the normal price for the suppressor plus the $200 NFA transfer tax when your Form 4 is submitted. The ATF approval clock starts immediately.

Pros:

• Fastest route to getting the can in your hands
• You start the ATF approval process today so you avoid any post January rush or potential delays caused by many people waiting until the free window opens.

Cons:

• You spend an extra $200 you could have kept if you waited until January
• If ATF processing speeds improve and backlog drops after the law change you might feel like you overpaid for speed

Good for you if:

You want to shoot suppressed this season or you value time over $200.

Option 2 — Buy now, have the dealer hold the suppressor, submit the Form 4 after January 1st

What happens:

You purchase the suppressor now but instruct the selling dealer or your local FFL to delay submitting the Form 4 until January 1, 2026. Because the law makes the tax zero for forms submitted on or after January 1, 2026, you should not owe the $200 if the Form 4 is filed after the effective date. Many dealers are explicitly offering customers the choice to file now or wait.

Pros:

• You lock in availability and current pricing now which can matter for hot models or limited runs
• You avoid paying the $200 tax if the Form 4 is actually submitted on or after January 1st
• You can take advantage of dealer promotions today while still expecting the tax removal later.

Cons and risks:

• You must trust the dealer to actually hold and file after Jan 1st. If they submit earlier you are on the hook for the tax. Always get the submit plan in writing or documented in your order notes. 
• There could be a January stampede. If a huge number of buyers instruct dealers to wait until Jan 1, ATF could see a surge in submissions which might temporarily slow approvals even though the tax is gone. Current ATF eForm processing times have improved but they can fluctuate. If the approval surge occurs you might wind up waiting longer than if you had filed earlier.

Good for you if:

You want to reserve a specific suppressor or price now, you can tolerate some uncertainty, and you get the dealer to confirm they will delay submission until the tax is zero.

Option 3 — Buy in January and submit in January

What happens:

You wait until Jan 1, 2026 to buy and then submit the Form 4. The transfer tax will be zero for forms submitted on or after that date. The ATF approval process still applies.

Pros:

• No $200 transfer tax
• Simple and transparent timing
• No need to rely on dealer promises about hold and submit

Cons:

• You may face limited inventory or higher retail prices if supply tightens or demand spikes in January
• You might join a backlog surge which could slow approvals depending on ATF volumes
• If you want the suppressor before January you cannot shoot suppressed until after approvals.

Good for you if:

You value saving $200 and do not need the suppressor immediately.

A couple of legal and process reminders

• The $200 tax going to zero does not remove the NFA procedures. You still need to submit a Form 4, do the fingerprinting and photos, and wait for ATF approval. The process remains in place.
• Any Form 4 submitted before January 1st, 2026 should require the old tax. If your Form 4 is submitted on or after January 1st, 2026, the transfer tax should be zero. That is how most industry guidance is reading the new law.
• State and local laws still matter. Some states restrict suppressors or require additional steps. Make sure your state allows ownership and that you comply with state rules.

My recommendation, short and practical

If you want to shoot suppressed now, buy and file now. If you can wait and the dealer agrees in writing to hold the firearm and file the Form 4 on or after January 1st, buy now and have them hold it. If the dealer will not agree to hold and you don’t want to fork over the $200, wait and buy in January. If saving $200 is important but you also want to lock a hot item, buy now and explicitly instruct the dealer to hold and to not submit the Form 4 before January 1st.

Stay safe and shoot straight,

Dominic and Dian – Blackbox Ballistics